A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
